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government or. grand. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you're on a federal government site. The purpose of this review is an overview of the trends and projections of food consumption (availability) up to 2050, both globally and for different regions of the world, together with the main factors responsible for these observed consumption trends.
Around the world, major changes are taking place in dietary patterns, including in the consumption of basic foods, towards more diversified diets. These changes in food consumption at global and regional levels have accompanied significant health consequences. The populations of countries that are going through a rapid transition are experiencing a nutritional transition. The diverse nature of this transition may be the result of differences in sociodemographic factors and other consumer characteristics.
Among other factors, such as urbanization and the commercialization of the food industry, the trade liberalization policies of the last two decades have implications for health by facilitating the “nutritional transition” that is associated with increased rates of obesity and chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Future food policies must take into account the agricultural and health sectors, which will allow the development of coherent and sustainable policies that ultimately benefit agriculture, human health and the environment. The changes in agricultural practices over the past 50 years have increased the world's capacity to provide food to its inhabitants through increased productivity, greater food diversity and less seasonal dependence. Food availability has also increased as a result of rising income levels and falling food prices.
This has led to significant changes in food consumption over the past 50 years. Along with an exploration of the trends and projections of food consumption (availability) up to 2050, both globally and for different regions of the world, the main factors responsible for these observed consumption trends will be examined. Various data sources can be used when examining patterns in both food supply and consumption to make global comparisons or to examine international trends over time. These data can be derived from food balances (FBS), household budget surveys, or individual dietary surveys (IDS).
Each of these methods has its own merits, depending on the particular desired result. These methodologies are also discussed in another driver review (Hawkesworth et al. For the purposes of nutrition monitoring and surveillance, these same methodologies can also be used, with the exception of food production figures. Food production data can be useful for examining trends in specific food crops in different regions of the world.
Production figures are available from FAO for all countries in the world for each crop (% of food: 26%), United Nations Agriculture Organization (200). However, for the purpose of examining differences in food consumption patterns, it is not as accurate as the data that comes from the FBS. The monitoring of dietary patterns within countries is achieved through the use of national monitoring systems. These repeated cross-sectional studies (IDS) are used to understand long-term changes in individual dietary intake.
This information is used to identify trends in foods, nutrients, and eating patterns among various subpopulations of interest. In the developed world, many countries carry out national surveys, which provide an invaluable source of data on food and nutrient intake. Some countries, such as the U.S. In the United States, they conduct regular national surveys as a government requirement, but most do so less frequently because of the high costs involved.
Despite this, national surveys are the main source of reliable information on actual dietary intake around the world. They are often supplemented by small surveys in individual places with a smaller number of people. In addition to data on changes in the composition of commodities in the consumption of available foods, this review also provides data in terms of specific or individual food groups within the main food products, such as cereals, meat, livestock products (eggs and dairy products), fish and vegetables, for different broadly defined regions of the world (electronic supplementary material, tables S1—S1). In addition, this review also presents some regional trends within countries derived from IDS data (tables 33—.
This, in part, serves to highlight the considerable variability between and within countries and avoids the risk of oversimplification in the interpretation of broader trends. The marked increase in available dietary energy observed around the world has been accompanied by changes in the composition of the diet. The process involved in this dietary change seems to follow a pattern that includes two main stages. In the first stage, known as the “expansion” effect, the main change is due to the increase in energy supply, since these additional calories come from cheaper plant-based foods (Smil 2000).
This development has been omnipresent and has occurred in both developed and developing countries. The second stage, called the “substitution” effect, produces a change in food consumption without significant changes in the general energy supply. This change is mainly due to basic foods rich in carbohydrates (cereals, roots, tubers), vegetable oils, animal products (meat and dairy products) and sugar. Unlike the first stage, this one is country-specific and is influenced by culture, beliefs and religious traditions.
In particular, these traditions can influence the extent to which animal products replace vegetables and the specific types of meat and animal products that are consumed. Cereals are still by far the most important food source in the world, providing 50 percent of calories and up to 54 percent in developing countries. Their contribution to energy intake varies markedly between developing and industrial countries. In developing countries, such as in Africa and parts of Asia, cereals can provide up to 70 percent of energy intake, while in industrial countries, for example, the United Kingdom, they provide approximately 30 percent of energy intake and 50 percent of available carbohydrates.
Looking ahead to 2050, the proportion of cereals in calories for food use is expected to continue to decline slowly, from 54 percent in 2001 to 49 percent in 2030 and 46 percent in 2050 (Alexandrata, 200). In contrast to this rather static situation in the case of rice, global wheat consumption has increased at a faster rate than that of all other cereals. This growth is largely due to the increase of the green revolution in developing countries (particularly in China and India), reflecting the increase in crop yields. According to future projections, wheat consumption growth will continue to be higher in developing countries.
This will be accompanied by a continuous growth in wheat imports, especially in non-producing countries or in countries that favor dependence on diets composed of roots, tubers, bananas and bananas. Meat has been an important part of the human diet for much of our history and continues to be the centerpiece of most foods in developed countries. In many developing countries, non-animal sources of protein are still dominant. In the United States and the United Kingdom, the most important meat sources come from pigs, sheep and cattle.
In other regions, such as India, the Middle East and those in Africa, goats and camels are the main meats consumed. In the UK, poultry (chicken) has become the most popular meat source. In addition to muscle, other parts of the animal, collectively called viscera, are also consumed. Meat products such as sausages, hamburgers, pork patties, etc.
There has been a significant increase (62%) (electronic supplementary material, tables S3 and S) in the consumption of meat available worldwide, and the biggest increases have occurred in developing countries (it has tripled since 1996). A significant part of this increase is due to increases in Asia in general and in China in particular. Unlike developing countries, such as Brazil, which has seen a three-fold increase, and China, a dramatic nine-fold increase in total meat consumption, countries such as India and Africa are not expected to experience similar increases in meat consumption in the coming decades. The United Kingdom has one of the lowest consumption of red meat in Europe, and consumption has been declining over the past 30 years.
A number of food-related health problems have contributed to this recent decline, for example,. The bovine spongiform encephalopathy crisis or “mad cow disease”. However, globally, a significant part of the increase in meat consumption can be attributed to the increase in poultry consumption around the world. Beef is the only meat group that, worldwide, showed no increase in consumption levels during this time.
This trend reflects the fact that, while beef consumption increased modestly in some regions (in developing countries such as China and Brazil), it declined very modestly in most other regions (North America, Oceania and Europe). Projections for 2050 suggest that meat consumption will increase moderately, and this will largely reflect the increase in pork and, in particular, poultry. Livestock products, including eggs and dairy products, such as milk, butter and cheese, have shown varying consumption trends since 1963 (electronic complementary equipment, tables S5 and S). Egg consumption levels (grams per capita per day) have doubled around the world, and increases are more pronounced in developing countries than in industrial countries.
However, within these two categories of countries, considerable variability is evident: some developing countries, such as India and many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, show little or no increase, and others, such as Brazil and China, experience quite marked increases in egg consumption. There is a similar picture of variability in industrial countries, showing a modest increase in Europe, especially in Eastern Europe, a modest decline in North America and a more pronounced decline in Oceania (electronic complementary equipment, tables S5 and S). While milk intake has increased in several developing countries, especially in Asia, in the United States. In the US, it has fallen dramatically in recent decades, and this has been reflected in an increase in the consumption of carbonated beverages and juices (Cavadini et al.
Future consumption patterns for these livestock products up to 2050 suggest that egg consumption will continue to increase and milk consumption will continue to fall (at least in developed countries), while there will be no appreciable change in the consumption of butter and cheese worldwide. Seafood consumption is expected to continue to increase by 2050 at a faster rate than any other category of fish. In addition, seafood intake will far exceed any of the other categories of fish, and that trend is expected in both industrial and developing countries. Recommending an increase in fish consumption is an area in which the viability of dietary recommendations must be weighed against concerns for the sustainability of marine populations.
This group includes a wide range of plant families and consists of any edible part of the plant, including roots (tubers), tubers, leaves, stems, buds, flowers and fruits. While fruits and vegetables don't contribute significantly to macronutrient intake, they do contribute significantly to dietary fiber. Legumes, especially legumes with seeds, are of great nutritional importance, especially in the developing world, where in many countries they constitute a staple food along with cereals. Trends in root and tuber consumption (including cassava, sweet potato, potatoes, yams, taro and bananas) show very modest declines around the world, especially in China and sub-Saharan Africa (electronic supplementary material, tables S9 and S).
In fact, 19 countries in sub-Saharan Africa rely on these products to obtain at least 20 percent of their food consumption in terms of calories (Alexandtratos, 200). This pattern reflects the sharp drop in sweet potato consumption in many developing countries, accompanied by a marked parallel increase in potato consumption in several developing countries. This is especially evident in China, where sweet potato consumption levels fell from 227 g per capita per day in 1963 to 99 g per capita per day in 2003, while, at the same time, potato consumption increased from 25 to 96 g per capita per day during the same period. Contrasting patterns in potato consumption can be observed between industrial countries (declining levels) and developing countries (increasing levels) (electronic complementary equipment, tables S9 and S).
This highlights the fact that the patterns observed in a general food category (roots and tubers) hide what happens at the individual dietary level, that is,. The contrasting trends observed in the case of sweet potatoes and potatoes. Therefore, a much more complex picture is likely to exist than could be described if trends in the food category were looked at at their most aggregated level. In the same way, what is happening at the regional level generally does not give us an image at the national level and, obviously, at the national level (for this we need data from the IDS).
Levels of consumption of legumes have fallen globally and, in particular, among developing countries, p. ex. A 10-fold drop in China, from 30 g in 1963 to 3 g in 2003 (electronic supplementary equipment, table S). When analyzing trends in fruit and vegetable consumption (electronic supplementary material, tables S9 and S), it is important to remember that the data refer to the consumption of available food and not to actual consumption.
Not doing so would be to describe an overly optimistic picture in terms of fruit and vegetable intake, since their combined intake far exceeds the recommended levels of at least 500 g or more per day. While fruit and vegetable production has increased in recent years, inadequate consumption remains a problem around the world. To increase consumption levels and address micronutrient deficiencies, in addition to the increase in production in the horticultural sector, it is necessary to focus on adapting aspects of the supply chain of the market. This will help make fruits and vegetables more accessible and affordable for poor households, in addition to ensuring access to markets for small producers.
In the countries of southern, central and eastern Europe, the consumption of fruits and vegetables remains well below recommended levels. This is also true in other developed and industrial regions, such as Europe and Australia. For example, the WHO recommends that the average intake of fruits and vegetables be at least 400 g of fruits and vegetables per person per day. However, data from the dietary survey show that the intake of fruits and vegetables by adults is lower than this figure in 20 of the 25 countries for which data are available (table).
In addition, in developed countries, a lower intake of fruits and vegetables is observed among people with a lower socioeconomic status (SES) (Mullie et al. These findings can only be obtained from IDS data and not from availability (FBS) data. Therefore, having both sources of data is essential to give us a more complete picture of food consumption patterns. Although globally our diets are increasingly energy-rich and sweeter (and many high-fiber foods are being replaced by processed versions), there is still enormous heterogeneity in dietary patterns specific to each region and country.
When describing historical and projected patterns of food consumption in the context of total food production, it is necessary to mention some trends in organic food production, as well as the consumption of functional foods, including genetically modified (GM) foods, in order to provide a more complete picture of trends in food consumption. Consumer attitudes toward organic food are complex and often link food to health, the environment, ethics and identity. The location of production plays a key role in promoting trust. A recent European survey on the reasons for buying organic foods revealed that “they are healthier for them” (48%) and “better for the environment” (16%) were the two most important reasons for selecting such foods (Walley et al.
Consumers also believe that organic foods are more nutritious than conventional foods and are willing to pay higher prices for them. However, no nutritional difference or the superiority of organic foods can be proven (Dangour et al. In fact, based on a very recent systematic review, no evidence of a difference in nutrient quality between organically and conventionally produced foods was found (Dangour et al. The higher price of organic food (especially meat) can be attributed to reduced crop yields, the increase in the cost of organic feed, the decline in animal population rates and the increase in labor requirements.
With the global population increasing and expected to reach 9 billion by 2050, a plan for the development of the organic sector is needed to meet this demand. However, the capacity of organic agriculture to contribute significantly to the global food supply has been questioned due to low yields, increased land use and the insufficiency of insufficient quantities of acceptable organic fertilizers (Badgley %26 Perfect 200). Therefore, organic agriculture is unlikely to be able to produce enough food to meet the expected increases in global food demand (Tilman et al. Therefore, it is important to find new solutions to the problems caused by population growth and environmental degradation.
They can be defined as foods and food components that provide a health benefit beyond basic nutrition (quantities needed for normal growth and development) and include conventional foods, fortified, enriched or improved foods, and dietary supplements (Clydesdale 2004a, b). The consumption of functional foods is increasing in almost all industrialized countries. Interest in functional foods and beverages has been driven by a desire for comfort and health. Hectic lifestyles make it more difficult to meet nutritional requirements using traditional foods and beverages.
The development of functional foods is expected to continue to grow in industrialized countries, driven by the increase in life expectancy, the higher prevalence of non-communicable diseases, the increase in health care costs and the acceptance of the strong link between diet and health. However, consumers are still somewhat wary of health-related claims in foods and beverages and are skeptical about their effectiveness. Success in the functional food market increasingly depends on establishing a relationship of trust with the consumer (Frewer et al. Proponents of transgenic foods see the benefits of recombinant DNA (RDNA) technology as a tool that offers potential benefits to farmers and consumers in a wide range of food and agricultural areas.
They also believe that transgenic foods offer the potential for a more abundant and cheaper food supply for the world. They allocate the benefits by continuously improving nutritional quality (including foods with a unique composition for populations whose diets lack essential nutrients), fresh fruits and vegetables with a longer shelf life, and the development of functional foods that can provide certain health benefits. On the other hand, people with special concerns generally fear safety concerns related to transgenic foods, as well as the environmental risks and ethical aspects of using RDNA technology. The Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety (Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity 2000) is an important step in alleviating environmental concerns, since it seeks to protect biological diversity from the possible risks posed by living modified organisms.
It has also provided an important stimulus for the development of national regulatory frameworks for genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in developing countries. This is important, since much of the growth of the transgenic food market in the future will occur in developing countries, especially in Brazil and China. Many of the changes in food consumption patterns mentioned above reflect the nutritional transition, a series of adverse changes in diet, physical activity and health. The shift from a high prevalence of malnutrition to a situation in which nutrition-related non-communicable diseases (NR-NCD) predominate is due to an increase in the consumption of unhealthy foods, together with a higher prevalence of overweight and obesity in countries of the world with middle and low incomes.
It can have serious implications in terms of public health outcomes, economic growth and international nutrition policy. The nutritional transition in a country is almost always preceded by a demographic and epidemiological transition. The drivers and consequences of food consumption change with economic development. Food consumption is variably affected by a wide range of factors, such as the availability, accessibility and choice of food, which in turn can be influenced by geography, demography, disposable income, socioeconomic status, urbanization, globalization, marketing, religion, culture and consumer attitudes.
Some of these factors that are specifically related to the nutritional transition are discussed below. Over the next three or four decades, global per capita income is expected to increase at a rate greater than 2 percent per year, and developing countries starting from a low base are expected to increase at even higher rates (Du et al. Their economies are expected to expand at twice the rate of industrial countries. Rising incomes mean diets with higher fat content.
In Mexico and Brazil, for example, where being overweight used to be a sign of wealth, it now reflects poverty more often. Rising incomes or falling prices have led to greater consumption of animal foods and processed foods. While well-educated people may choose to adopt a healthy lifestyle, the poor have fewer food options and more limited access to nutrition education. In the United States and the United Kingdom), the effects of increased incomes have generally been considered beneficial, as they translate into better quality diets, better medical care, lower morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases, and a lower risk of obesity (Marmot, 200).
The effects of SES on dietary intake have revealed disparities that favor a healthier dietary pattern among people with higher SES in industrial countries over the past four decades (Lallukka et al. Some of this reflects a pattern of health-conscious behavior that results in health-driven behavioral change. It may also be that income is causally related to health through its effect on social participation and opportunities to control life circumstances (Marmot, 200). Essentially, almost all of the population growth in the coming decades will be urban.
In 1900, only 10 percent of the world's population inhabited cities. Today, that figure exceeds 50%. Although urbanization will progress very slowly in many industrial and transition countries (those countries are already predominantly urban), it will continue to grow unabated in countries where the vast majority of the country is rural. This is already particularly evident in sub-Saharan Africa (rate of urbanization above 4%) and East Asia (rate of urbanization above 3%).
Urbanization has numerous consequences, since it leads to new and better marketing strategies (with greater access to modern media) and distribution infrastructure, attracts large supermarkets dominated by multinational corporations and translates into better transportation systems, which improves access to foreign suppliers and the importance of imports in the general food supply (Hawkes, 200). Ultimately, this facilitates and results in the globalization of food consumption patterns. Trade liberalization can affect the availability of certain foods by eliminating barriers to foreign investment in food distribution. It can also allow foreign investment in other types of food retailing; multinational fast food establishments have made substantial investments in middle-income countries.
The availability of processed foods has increased in developing countries thanks to foreign direct investment from multinational food companies. Therefore, changes in trade policies have facilitated the increase in the availability and consumption of meat, dairy products and processed foods (Thow %26, Hawkes, 200). Therefore, these trade liberalization policies have implications for health, since they are a factor that contributes to the “nutritional transition”, which is associated with increased rates of obesity and chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases and cancer (Thow %26, Hawkes, 200). While trade liberalization has allowed for greater availability and affordability of highly processed, calorie-rich and nutrient-poor animal foods and products in developing countries, however, more research is needed to better understand the relationship between trade policy and diets (Thow, 200).
Although data are available on the growth in sales of processed foods (an annual growth of 29% in developing countries compared to 7% in high-income countries), there is still a lack of evidence on the consumption patterns of processed foods and their determinants in developing countries (Hawkes, 200). Therefore, more empirical data on the consumption patterns of highly processed foods in developing countries is urgently needed. It should also be noted that it may not be advisable to explore the relationship between trade and health without considering a broader analysis of the growth and development of GNP. Transnational food companies (TFCs) (franchises and manufacturers), such as KFC, McDonald's, Kraft and Nestlé, drive the market for fast food, processed foods and the Western lifestyle, which have become so widespread in developing countries (Hawkes, 200).
Along with the increase in the consumption of modern processed foods in developed countries, developing countries are also creating processed versions of traditional dishes. Consequently, with the globalization of food systems, the traditional diets of developing countries are being transformed, since more foods are now available according to the high-calorie fast food pattern of developed countries, and they are becoming more abundant and cheaper thanks to advances in food processing and modern technology. All too often, however, the only fault is attributed to the globalization of modern food processing, marketing and distribution sectors, including soft drinks, fast food, and other multinational companies. Other factors that can also influence are the rapid expansion of the global media and the changes that have led to a decrease in energy expenditure related to leisure, work and transport, as well as other factors directly related to the openness of our global economy (Popkin, 200).
In a single decade of globalization, from 1990 to 2000, and just after the liberalization of markets, there have been changes in the retail sector in Latin America that took 50 years for North American retail trade to achieve (Reardon %26, Swinnen, 200). Supermarkets are now important players in most of the agri-food economy in Latin America. In 2000, supermarkets represented approximately 60 percent on average of the domestic retail sectors of South America and Mexico, representing a four-fold increase in a decade (Reardon et al. In fact, supermarkets, together with large scale food manufacturers, have profoundly transformed agri-food markets across the region.
This rapid growth was only possible because supermarkets expanded beyond their original markets and moved to small, poor countries, from urban to rural areas. This expansion of supermarkets now extends far beyond Latin America and is only 5 to 7 years behind schedule in East and Southeast Asia, as well as in Central and Eastern Europe (Reardon %26, Swinnen, 200). In regions where supermarkets have made significant advances in the food retail system, the entire food economy, from farm to table, is affected. For consumers, the consequences of supermarkets have brought many nutritional benefits, with substantial improvements in food quality and safety standards (p.
Supermarkets solved the problem of keeping animal products refrigerated at competitive prices. Cheap and, most importantly, safe milk for the poor in Brazil was made available to the poor thanks to supermarkets. They also offer the advantage of convenience, a feature that is particularly attractive to the mostly urban consumer. However, supermarkets can also increase the availability of cheaper and less healthy foods, since they are large suppliers of processed foods, high in fat, added sugar and salt, especially in developing countries.
Recent and radical changes in the food marketing and distribution system (through its globalization) have had a profound effect on food consumption patterns. It has been argued that the role of TFCs and the growth of supermarkets in developing countries are at the very heart of this development (Thow, 200). An example of how marketing and government subsidies can change consumption patterns and trends can be seen in beverage consumption in the United States, for example, which has changed dramatically over the past 50 years. In 1945, Americans were drinking more than four times as much milk as carbonated soft drinks; 50 years later, they were consuming nearly two and a half times more carbonated beverages than milk.
The reasons for the increase in soft drink consumption have been advertising and heavy subsidies to producers of corn syrup, which surpassed cane and beet sugar for the first time in 1985 (Putnam %26), Allshouse 199.According to Willett (200), exposure to television advertising is perhaps the main factor responsible for the obesity epidemic among children in the United States. Much more attention is currently being paid to greater regulation of the marketing and advertising of food, especially for children (Nestlé, 200). Marketing has taken advantage of rising disposable incomes in countries such as China, India, Brazil and Mexico, where consumers spend more on foods that are often highly processed and unhealthy. This trend is aggravated by the fact that many TFC giants have launched aggressive marketing campaigns to penetrate the consumer bases of these countries, precisely because of the increase in disposable income.
Consumer health awareness continues to increase, and the increasing availability of health information goes hand in hand with an aging population and the increased risk of lifestyle-related diseases. The selection of foods that are acceptable to a person is increasingly being carried out in a context in which the food industry and food retailers substantially influence availability. If we want to be able to formulate policies that focus on reducing the consumption of total energy or total fat, we need to know why consumers eat more than necessary. While public interest in sustainability continues to increase and consumer attitudes are mostly positive, behavioral patterns are not always consistent with these attitudes.
A study was recently carried out to explore this gap between the attitude and behavior of Belgian consumers (Vermeir %26, Verbeke, 200). It was found that participation in sustainability, certainty and the perception of consumer effectiveness were directly associated with a positive attitude and the intention to buy sustainable food products (Vermeir %26, Verbeke, 200). Policies aimed at improving healthier food consumption patterns should pay attention to the role of consumers as drivers of food production, since they have an important influence on demand for various types of food products. After analyzing food consumption patterns and some of the factors that drive the observed changes, it is important to mention the possible implications for health in order to highlight the important role that diet plays.
This review does not explore the implications for the environment, not because they are negligible (on the contrary), but rather because they are addressed to a greater or lesser extent in other review articles in this volume. The world is increasingly dominated by degenerative diseases. In fact, there are now more overweight and obese people than underweight or malnourished people in the world (Popkin, 200). It has also become evident that non-communicable diseases are increasingly emerging among low- and middle-income groups in less prosperous countries.
Therefore, in many of these developing countries, the spread of obesity has occurred in parallel with the globalization of food systems and the expansion of trade, foreign direct investment and TFCs. The resulting health burden resulting from the nutritional transition is enormous. The increase in the consumption of high-calorific and more energy-dense foods with less activity leads to an increase in the incidence of obesity and diet-related diseases, such as diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD) and certain types of cancer (Shetty, 200). Although, according to these estimates, the incidence of malnutrition is decreasing, the incidence of obesity, diabetes and hypertension is increasing.
Countries such as India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are experiencing epidemics of adult-onset diabetes (NIDDM) and coronary heart disease. In fact, it is expected that by 2025, a fifth of diabetic patients will be Indian and three out of four will come from developing countries. In conclusion, a high intake of food (in relation to energy expenditure), in particular foods with high energy content, will increase the likelihood of overweight and other non-communicable diseases and the associated costs for individuals and society. A recent study that analyzed the economic impact of obesity and diabetes in India and China revealed that costs are rising considerably as they represent an important component of GNP.
In fact, it has also been suggested that it could even go so far as to actually overwhelm China's health system (Popkin, 200). Ageing, globalization and urbanization represent new challenges to achieving good nutritional status. The changes observed in dietary patterns caused by the pace and level of urbanization have significant effects on global food supply, markets and trade. This is particularly important in terms of the increase in overnutrition (i.e.,.
Diet-related chronic illness in many developing countries. KANSAS CITY As flavor trends shift from the mass market to focusing on regional flavors, product developers are flooded with options, especially from regions such as Mexico, Latin America, Cuba and even some parts of the Caribbean. The flavors can range from spicy to sweet and offer a full range of options to differentiate products on store shelves and in new menu items, and to drive growth in a wide variety of product categories. Vegan and plant-based options welcome the new year.
Consumers have a significant influence on the direction of the food and agriculture system. Through their purchases, they express their preferences and values and help shape the decisions that producers and retailers make. Their influence increases as they consider what they buy, why they buy it, and how and where they buy food and agricultural products. [1] These consumer trends are global, but the nature and extent of their influence are determined by geography, cultural norms, government policies, and socioeconomic status.
The next chapter provides an overview of these global drivers of change. An in-depth look at the evolution of the United States. UU. Consumer preferences show how these trends are transforming food and agriculture systems in the 21st century.
The demand for food is largely due to changes in the size, growth rate and age of the population. Although the global population rate has fallen, by 2050 there will be nearly 10 billion people who will need nutritious, safe and affordable food. 2 The latest United Nations population report reveals that the world population is getting older and younger, which has important implications for global food demand. Global birth rates are declining and, in a growing number of countries, the birth rate is too low to maintain current population levels.
At the same time, life expectancy is rising, even in low-income countries. As a result, in 2050, the number of people aged 60 and over will be equal to the number of people aged 15 and under. 3 As people age, they won't need to eat as much, which could reduce the overall growth rate of food demand in the coming decades. Older people are living longer than expected and, without jobs or sufficient savings, rates of food insecurity and malnutrition among older people are likely to increase.
Many will need government and non-profit food assistance programs to meet their basic nutritional needs. On the contrary, the population of some regions tends to be younger. In sub-Saharan Africa, 60 percent of the population is under 25 years of age and the birth rate, while declining, is still double the world average4.This youth explosion is increasing demand for food, but many of these young people are living on or below the poverty line. They lack the resources to buy or grow enough nutritious food to maintain a healthy diet.
Finding food is a daily task for 810 million people and 151 million children suffer from stunting (low stature-age ratio), which causes lifelong physical and cognitive deficiencies. 5 At the same time, overweight and obesity rates are rising to alarming levels, especially among young people; 38 million children are now overweight or obese, 6 The number of people actively involved in food production continues to decline, but consumer interest in the content and origin of their food is a daily challenge. It boosts your purchases more and more. Healthy diets are a top priority, especially for women, who make the majority of household food purchases, but what a healthy diet comprises is a source of constant debate and uncertainty.
Consumers say that the proliferation of information and opinions about food makes it difficult for them to separate fact from fiction and identify which foods are best suited to their nutritional needs and social values. Rising global incomes allow consumers to buy more imported and high-value foods, such as fruits and vegetables, meat and packaged foods. There are also new malls available to consumers. Supermarkets, long considered a phenomenon of developed economies, are showing up in unexpected places.
In sub-Saharan Africa, more and more people are buying food in supermarkets; the top five retailers in Africa are supermarket chains based in South Africa, and 9 African consumers tend to buy food in small local stores and informal vendors. Supermarkets now compete directly by being located in urban centers, in and around low- and moderate-income neighborhoods. In Nairobi, shoppers identified low prices and a large selection of items as the reasons why they prefer supermarkets to smaller retail outlets. Urban consumers also consider that many of the premium food products offered by supermarkets are affordable luxury items, especially since varieties of fruits, vegetables, meat, fish, spices and packaged items are not usually available in African markets.
Young urban consumers between the ages of 20 and 35 are shopping at modern retail food stores and want to buy more vegetables to improve their diets. Consumers are also concerned about the safety of the food they eat, especially domestic rice and other food crops that may have been grown on contaminated agricultural soils. They're willing to pay more for trusted international brands that they know are safe and of high quality. U.S.
consumers are changing the way they interact with food, including how and where they buy it, as well as what they eat and why. Some of the factors driving these changes include the rise of the millennial generation, the purchasing power of working women, and concerns about diet and health. Millennials are buying food prepared at home at a variety of outlets, rather than just the nearest supermarket. They are also the main users of grocery delivery services and meal kits.
The USDA study on millennials provides an important nuance to the conclusions of the IMF survey. Food spending and shopping patterns among the millennial generation vary depending on when people entered the labor force. According to data from the USD, 22 young people who tried to get their first job during the Great Recession had difficulty finding work and accepted jobs with lower salaries. This leads to a lower wage growth trajectory that will continue throughout your working life.
As a result of their experiences, recessionary millennials have more conservative attitudes toward spending on food. They eat at home more often and spend less on food compared to other members of their generation, even those who have similar incomes but started working before or after the recession. While millennials in recession are a relatively small segment of their generation, researchers predict that these conservative attitudes and spending habits will have repercussions throughout their lives. In most households around the world, women are the “purchasing managers” and have an enormous influence on the food system.
Many women are also the main sources of income for their families. In 40 percent of households with children under 18, women are the main breadwinners of the family. 24 Marketing surveys consistently show that these working mothers prioritize health, convenience and price in their food choices, both in grocery stores and in their restaurant purchases. Grocery stores offer prepared meals for the whole family that allow women to choose the combination of dishes that their family wants and needs.
The quick-service restaurant industry responds to women's preferences by offering healthier options with less fat, calories, carbohydrates, sugar and salt. 25 Assembly line style orders allow women to choose ingredients that suit their tastes and needs. While these options are more expensive than food prepared at home, women also factor in the value of their time in their shopping calculations. The need to control weight and cardiovascular health is a growing concern among consumers; these were the main reasons given for following a specific diet.
More than a third of Americans followed a specific eating pattern or diet in the past year, according to an annual survey by the International Food Information Council (IFIC). Sales of fruits and vegetables and fresh meat are increasing, while companies that produce the traditional cereals, snacks, soups and condiments that line the central aisles of the supermarket are seeing their unit sales decrease, 28 The supply of fresh fruits and vegetables available to the U.S. Consumers have increased dramatically over the past 25 years. In the Michigan State University (MSU) food literacy and participation survey, 78 percent of consumers reported that they could access fresh fruits and vegetables every day of the week29.The increase in the availability of fresh produce coincided with the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which eliminated almost all tariffs on agricultural products and harmonized food safety regulations between the United States.
Consumers can buy a wide variety of fresh produce, even if they are out of season or not grown in their region, 30 One of the most popular products in the U.S. Consumers are berries (strawberries, raspberries, blueberries and blackberries) from Mexico, which can be purchased year-round in most grocery stores in the country. The increase in the per capita consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables represents progress towards healthier and more diverse diets. However, dietary data from the United States Departments of Agriculture and Health and Human Services (HHS) indicate that only children under 8 years of age eat the recommended daily amount of fruit and no age group or gender consumes the recommended amount of vegetables.34 The continuing upward trend in the prices of fresh fruits and vegetables could be preventing low- and middle-income consumers from buying them.
Encouraging the consumption of frozen products, which have the same nutritional content as fresh products, could help more consumers meet recommended daily intake levels. The economic recovery from the Great Recession has occurred slowly for people with low incomes, and children living in poor households remain vulnerable to food insecurity. Three million households with children lacked the resources to provide sufficient or quality food at some point last year. Despite the trend towards healthy, practical and sustainably sourced foods, consumers always consider taste, price and familiarity with the brand to be their main considerations when buying food.
42.Consumers are bombarded with information and opinions related to food in the media, the Internet and social networks. Identifying authoritative and reliable sources can be difficult. This creates inconsistencies between what consumers say they want and what they buy when they arrive at the store. The MSU food literacy and participation survey reflects part of this consumer uncertainty.44.A plurality of consumers (38 percent) claim to have a higher than average knowledge of the global food system, but a majority also said that they are not sure how many times a week they consume foods that contain genetically modified ingredients.
51 percent of consumers say they would be willing to pay more for food that had a less harmful impact on the environment (although the survey does not indicate how much more), but 48 percent said that they rarely or never seek information on how their food was produced. Misinformation about food production methods has very real consequences for human health. A study of low-income shoppers revealed that they were wary of buying conventionally produced fruits and vegetables for safety reasons. This inaccurate information on the levels and health impacts of pesticide residues in agricultural products has been widely disseminated on social media.
As a result, low-income consumers said they were less likely to buy conventional products and would prefer to buy smaller quantities of the more expensive organic varieties. Low-income consumers already buy fewer fresh fruits and vegetables and have higher rates of obesity than people with higher incomes. If these consumers, with limited prices, buy even fewer products due to confusion about pesticide residues, this hinders their ability to improve their health through nutritious diets. Plant-based substitutes attract consumers because they are perceived as “healthier for people and the planet”.
Nutritional and environmental science, however, tells a more nuanced story. Christina is an experienced communication professional with more than 30 years of experience, including 14 in international development. His experience in business development, communications and public relations fully supports his strategic communication initiatives at the IFDC. As director of strategic communications at the IFDC, she regularly collaborates with international project staff, partners and donors of the IFDC to design and implement evidence-based strategic communication campaigns.
Tell great stories about the Center's work on soil health and plant nutrition, inclusive market systems and innovative technologies for a food secure and environmentally sustainable world. As communications director of the Arab American Institute, she created and implemented strategies for long-term promotion, as well as for situations of rapid crisis, including a daily analysis of the Gaza War (Operation Cast Lead) for the media and members of the AAI. The objectives of CropLife Canada include improving public trust in our members' technologies, facilitating a positive regulatory environment, ensuring the proper management of our industry's products, and building collaborative relationships with stakeholders. Before joining CropLife Canada, Pierre worked in the policy office of the Health Canada Pest Control Regulatory Agency, where he worked on a wide range of topics relevant to Canada's plant science industry.
Pierre is a graduate of Carleton University and the University of Guelph. Nikki Dutta, M, S. At the Foundation for Food and Agricultural Research (FFAR), Mrs. Nikki Dutta is responsible for coordinating several multi-stakeholder collaborative initiatives designed to improve animal welfare and productivity, such as the Greener Livestock Initiative, the Egg-Tech Award and the International Consortium for Antimicrobial Management.
Nikki earned her master's degree in sustainability management from American University and studied international business and management at Dickinson College. Sarah Brown serves as Director of Public and Government Affairs | Agricultural Solutions North America, based in Washington, DC. Previously, Sarah served as executive director of the American Farm Bureau Federation. Sarah graduated from Cornell University, where she currently serves on an advisory board for the School of Agriculture and Life Sciences.
François has real and tangible experience in developing innovative solutions for a productive, sustainable and resilient agricultural sector. Jocelyn Brown Hall is the director of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Liaison Office for North America, based in Washington, DC. Before holding this position, he served as Deputy Regional Representative of the FAO Regional Office for Africa, where he oversaw 47 FAO country offices and led strategy and communications on food security, agriculture, climate change, agri-food trade and animal and plant health, among other topics. He also served as FAO representative in Ghana, where he worked with the ministries of agriculture, fisheries, social protection and trade to promote issues such as healthy school meals, the rehabilitation of land contaminated by illegal mining, sustainable aquaculture and fish smoking, and the digitization of agricultural data.
She also served as principal expert in the technical relationship between USDA and international organizations such as the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture and several international research centers. Canisius Kandare is the executive director of the AATF. Previously, he was executive secretary of the Council of African Ministers on Water. He has held other positions, including executive secretary of the Lake Victoria Basin Commission; regional director of capacity building and director of strategic planning and management of the Nile Basin Initiative; professor and dean of the Faculty of Agriculture at the University of Rwanda.
He holds a doctorate and master's degree in Aquatic Sciences from the University of Namur (Belgium), a degree in Biology with a specialization in Environmental Sciences and a degree in Biology and Chemistry from the “Institut Supérieur Pédagogique de Bukavu”. Andrés Rodríguez is the current Agricultural Attaché of Chile in the United States and Canada, based in Washington DC. He has a degree in Business from Diego Portales University (Chile), a master's degree in Marketing from Griffith University (Queensland, Australia) and a postgraduate certificate in International Business from the University of Chile. He has extensive experience in agribusiness.
After his experience in other industries, he dedicated himself to agriculture when he was appointed marketing manager for the United States and Latin America at the Association of Exporters of Fresh Fruits of Chile (ASOEX). During his career, he was also executive director of the Chilean Nut Commission, executive director of Chile Prunes and representative in Chile of the Agricultural Products Marketing Association (PMA), which is currently the International Association of Fresh Products. He was also a member of the board of directors and counselor of the National Agricultural Society (SNA) and was a member of the Chilean Food Export Council. Prior to joining Smithfield Foods, Leeth was a partner at a major global law firm, where he represented the firm's clients before federal and state courts and agencies in matters related to major federal and state environmental laws, disputes over water rights, cost recovery and contaminated properties, regulatory development and permits.
It also focused on state and local government issues and land use disputes. Previously, Leeth served as Deputy Attorney General for the State of Virginia, representing a variety of state agencies, and began his legal career working as a legal assistant to a federal judge who was presiding in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia. As associate director of CALS Global, Agnew promotes collaboration between international partners, students and CALS teachers to create a global impact in the fields of agriculture and life sciences.
It also supports the implementation of strategic priorities for the university and CALS Global to promote the global university model with land concessions. Wei Zhang is an adjunct professor in the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics at Virginia Tech. His research focuses on the environmental and resource use implications of agricultural production and the design of agri-environmental policies. His ongoing research projects include climate change and agricultural productivity growth, the benefits and costs of the USDA Environmental Quality Incentives Program, and the loss and waste of vegetables on farms in the United States.
Born in Johannesburg, South Africa, Clarke earned his professional veterinary degree from the University of Pretoria, South Africa, with a doctorate. In veterinary pharmacology from Louisiana State University and a master's degree in higher education from Oklahoma State University. He is certified as a Diploma of the American College of Veterinary Clinical Pharmacology. Clarke's first teaching appointment in 1987 was at Oklahoma State University, where he also served as academic department director and associate dean of academic affairs at the Center for Veterinary Health Sciences.
Funded by corporate, state, and federal agencies, including U.S. agencies. The research by Clarke, the Department of Agriculture and the National Institutes of Health, focused on interactions between antibacterial agents, animal patients and infectious microbes. He has received the Pfizer Award for Excellence in Research.
Clarke has held leadership positions in several professional organizations, including the board of directors of the Association of Veterinary Medical Colleges and the former president of the American College of Veterinary Clinical Pharmacology. He was also a member of the National Advisory Board for Agricultural Research, Extension, Education and Economics and of the Board of Education of the AVMA, the accrediting agency for veterinary medicine education in North America. In professional and technical education at Virginia Tech. He is passionate about advancing youth leadership in agriculture.
She is married to Cleavon, a retired veteran of the United States Army. Ally Okeyo Mwai is the principal scientist of the ILRI Global Research Program on Livestock Genetics (Living Genes). Okeyo is a quantitative geneticist with more than 30 years of experience in the practical design and implementation of livestock improvement programs in the regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In the past, Okeyo led research on reproduction strategies at ILRI, focusing specifically on development and implementation projects, which covered a wide range of research areas, including the characterization and genetic diversity of indigenous tropical livestock; their better use, as well as the development and application of assisted reproductive technologies in dairy cattle.
Before joining ILRI, he was director of the Animal Reproduction and Genetics Section of the Department of Animal Production of the University of Nairobi and coordinator of the Small Ruminant Research Program at the then Kenyan Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization. Okeyo holds and holds several positions on the national and international advisory board. He is currently leading the development of research and development programs for genetic gains for dairy cattle led by ILRI in the East Africa region. Okeyo has published numerous publications (he is the author and co-author of more than 150 articles in scientific journals and conferences) and has held several scientific publishers and positions on national and international advisory boards.
Okeyo has a master's degree in Animal Sciences (Animal Genetics) from the University of California at Davis and a doctorate in Animal Reproduction and Genetics from the University of Nairobi. Mungai is a professor of soil science with research interests in the biological fixation of nitrogen in cereal legumes, biological agricultural inputs and the relevance of soil-based approaches for adaptation, the mitigation of 26% to climate change. He has successfully coordinated twelve research projects and several internship programs for students. Nancy is currently participating in a project entitled “Transforming African agricultural universities so that they contribute significantly to the growth and development of Africa” (TagDev), a partnership between the University of Egerton and the University of Gulu and funded by the Mastercard Foundation through RUFORUM.
The project has supported more than 110 undergraduate and 110 graduate students to study various disciplines related to agriculture, including agronomy, horticulture, agribusiness, and nutrition and food security. TagDev has tested an innovative model of agricultural training that allows agriculture students to work closely with rural communities to promote the transformation of the food system. Research and community action approaches have been at the heart of the implementation of the TagDev project. Nancy is also a member of a research consortium led by Michigan State University called “Sustainable Agricultural Intensification and Rural Economic Transformation” (SAIRET+), which is developing a longer-term proposal to support the increase of agricultural productivity through the sustainable use of fertilizers in Africa.
Nancy has supervised more than 20 graduate students and has published 72 publications in international peer-reviewed and peer-reviewed journals, conference proceedings and technical reports. After two years, she was promoted to lead the training, which included the development of training plans and the implementation of the curriculum for farmers and train-trainers. Florah has also coordinated programs within the FIPS, such as working with young people and working with potatoes. He currently leads partnership development work that includes the development of new relationships, the development of ideas for funding and the maintenance of existing relationships, among other functions.
Tim Njagi is an experienced development economist with 15 years of experience in the fields of development planning, policy implementation and research. He has a doctorate in Development Economics and a master's degree in International Development from the National Graduate Institute for Political Studies (GRIPS) in Japan. He has experience working in the public sector, since he worked in the National Treasury and Planning of Kenya and is currently a fellow at the Tegemeo Institute for Agricultural Policy and Development at the University of Egerton. He is also a member of the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE), the African Association for Agricultural Economics (AAAE), the African Evaluation Association (AFReA), the Kenya Evaluation Society (ESK) and the Kenya Institute for Economic Affairs (EIA).
It aspires to make a significant contribution to addressing food insecurity and poverty in developing countries. Isaac Kibwage is on leave of absence at the University of Nairobi, where he works as professor of Pharmaceutical Chemistry at the School of Pharmacy. He has published numerous publications in his discipline. Isaac Kibwage has held several positions in the Kenyan Pharmaceutical Society, including that of president for a 6-year term.
He has extensive experience in pharmaceutical regulatory systems at local and international levels, and specifically in the quality control and quality assurance of medicines. Thanks to his commitment and exemplary pharmaceutical services, Isaac Kibwage received the “Head of State” award and the Kenyan Pharmaceutical Society awarded him the title of “Member of the Kenyan Pharmaceutical Society”. Nassib Mugwanya is director of Global Alliances — Agriculture Engagement %26 Activation at Bayer and leads the participation of small farmers in the strategic partnerships team of the %26 Global Stakeholder Affairs. Before joining Bayer, Nassib worked at the Uganda National Agricultural Research Organization, where he spent most of his time on education and outreach activities on biotechnology among small farmers.
Nassib has a background in agriculture, with a doctorate in agricultural extension and education from North Carolina State University, and a bachelor's degree and master's degree in agriculture and extension education from Makerere University in Kampala. Before joining Pioneer, Humphrey worked at Syngenta AG for 10 years in various positions: commercial manager for the small owner segment, director of marketing, strategy and planning, area sales manager, and other positions. Master of Business Administration (Strategic Management), University of Nairobi. Bachelor of Science in Horticulture, Egerton University.
Benson Mutuku is a humanitarian and development professional with more than 13 years of experience working with NGOs, non-governmental organizations, the private sector and government institutions. Benson has extensive experience in the programmatic design, implementation and technical advice of gender programs in agriculture, food security and nutrition, financial inclusion %26, economic empowerment, policies and promotion, and education and health. Benson has led and provided technical expertise in multinational projects in Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, Djibouti, Tanzania, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Burundi, Zambia, Somalia, Ghana and Uganda. Benson has worked on several initiatives and research activities related to policy.
He has experience in monitoring and evaluation, so he oversees the planning, evaluation, knowledge management and monitoring of a program. Benson is an experienced trainer at both the community and political levels, and has participated in capacity-building processes across the country and beyond. Benson has basic French-speaking skills. Benson is passionate about gender transformation in local, national, regional and other spheres of influence.
Prior to that, Tony was director of the Office of Multilateral Trade Affairs of the U.S. Office of Economic and Business Affairs. Tony joined the Foreign Service in 1997 and is a member of the Superior Foreign Service. From the University of Minnesota Law School and with a master's degree in National Security Strategy from the National War College.
Performance and total factor productivity are ratios between outputs and inputs, but they are not the same thing, and the distinction is important. Yield measures the production per unit of a single input, for example, the amount of crops grown on one hectare of land. Yields can increase through productivity growth, but they can also increase by applying more inputs, which is called input intensification. Therefore, an increase in performance may or may not represent improvements in sustainability.
Total factor productivity captures the interaction between multiple inputs and agricultural outputs. Ortiz-Bobea et al. As a result, the TFP is a powerful metric for evaluating and monitoring the sustainability of agricultural systems. Changes in the food supply have also radically altered the food environment and the choices that consumers can make.
But what if things didn't work out the way everyone thought they would? Trying to forecast food trends is still fun and sometimes even accurate. As a result, their food purchases are the trends that producers, retailers and restaurateurs are following most closely. To get a complete picture, food consumption surveys should be conducted that show the distribution of the national food supply at different times of the year among different groups of the population. FAO calculates FBS from national accounts of food supply and use, and is calculated from food produced and imported to countries minus food exported, net of imports, used for animals or not available for human consumption, divided by population size.
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